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No Middle Ground: Russia Faces a Choice between Unsustainable Escalation and Looking for an Exit
Russia Ukraine Air Campaign Strategy 2026: A practitioner analysis by Stefan Wolff & Tetyana Malyarenko
Jun 5
•
Stefan Wolff
1
2
Armenia's Election Is a Geopolitical Referendum
Armenia's election and the South Caucasus shift: a practitioner analysis by James Stanley and Stefan Wolff
Jun 4
•
Stefan Wolff
1
3
A US–Iran Deal Is Closer — and More Fragile — Than It Looks
For now, fear of an uncontrolled escalation may be enough to get the US and Iran to make a deal. Lasting peace will require tackling far more difficult…
May 25
•
Stefan Wolff
1
1
What the Putin-Xi Summit Reveals About China’s Long-term Strategy
Multipolarity is China's waiting room. Russia (and the US) just paid the entry fee.
May 22
•
Stefan Wolff
3
3
The Pesky Toddler: How the Xi–Trump Summit Pushed Russia Further Off the Adult Table
And why a Xi–Trump Equilibrium also puts pressure on Europe.
May 18
•
Stefan Wolff
2
1
Europe’s New Security Architecture
How minilateral formats are reshaping the continent’s defence.
May 17
•
Stefan Wolff
3
1
Useful or Disruptive: How a US-China Thaw Narrows Russia's Strategic Options
Strategic invisibility is the problem Putin has spent his presidential career trying to avoid.
May 16
•
Stefan Wolff
3
3
Russia’s Hybrid War Against Europe
What it is, how it works, and why it’s only partially effective.
May 13
•
Stefan Wolff
3
4
The US-Iran War: Neither Side Is Hurting Enough to Talk
Almost ten weeks into the war, Washington and Tehran have not crossed the threshold of pain that makes negotiating less costly than fighting.
May 1
•
Stefan Wolff
3
3
Orbán's election defeat frees €90 billion for Ukraine — but the harder question is EU membership
By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff
Apr 27
•
Navigating the Vortex
4
2
"Is the American strategy working or flailing?" — Iran, the blockade, and China
The Iran–US ceasefire expires 22 April. Stefan Wolff on back-channel talks, the blockade risk, and why China is failing its global leadership test.
Apr 16
•
Navigating the Vortex
5
1
Lebanon strikes expose a major flaw in Trump’s Iran deal
Israel’s fight with Hezbollah and other Iranian regional proxies is part of a strategy that predates, and is at odds with, US President Donald Trump’s…
Apr 15
•
Stefan Wolff
1
1
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