The future of Afghanistan hangs in the balance

On Our Radar, 21 April 2023

One of the stories that we have followed for some time is the circumstances in Afghanistan. The situation of the UN mission, UNAMA, has become ever more precarious and its ability to improve the humanitarian and economic situation of ordinary Afghans has been seriously impeded. Within that context, it was intriguing to see China’s foreign ministry release a position paper on Afghanistan.

What’s it about: On 12 April, the Chinese foreign ministry issued a position paper  on Afghanistan. Four of its eleven points deal with the threat of terrorism and narcotics that Afghanistan poses, indicating the serious concerns that China has in this respect. Unsurprisingly, the paper also condemns past and current US actions in relation to Afghanistan and juxtaposes them to China’s respect for the country’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity and Beijing’s commitment to never interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, never seek selfish interests in Afghanistan, and never pursue a sphere of influence. That, however, does not stop the Chinese foreign ministry from demanding moderate and prudent governance from the Taliban, including the protection of the basic rights and interests of all Afghan people, including women, children and all ethnic groups. Moreover, China commits itself to supporting peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan, including through facilitating a solution to Afghanistan’s humanitarian and refugee issues and through strengthening international and regional coordination on the Afghan issue.

Why it matters: Afghanistan has not been in a good place for as long as many people’s living memory. Foreign occupation and civil war have been a near-constant feature of life in Afghanistan for several decades. The Taliban takeover of power in August 2021 has done little to improve this. On the contrary, the economic situation in the country is dire. Women and girls are more and more excluded from education and the labour market. Levels of violence may have decreased, partly because of the harsh rule imposed by the Taliban, but the threat posed by Islamic State and other terrorist groups to Afghanistan and the region remains. Addressing this complex set of challenges requires a coordinated and thought-through approach by Afghanistan’s neighbours and the broader international community—an approach that recognises the urgent needs of Afghans and at the same time takes an ethically principled stance on the Taliban regime that causes much of their suffering.

Our take: While Afghanistan remains one of the most deprived countries in the world with no hope of imminent improvement, the UN simultaneously contemplates pulling out its mission and taking steps towards recognising the Taliban regime. The dilemma that the UN is facing is that its operations have become more and more constrained with the Taliban now prohibiting women from working for the UN mission in the country. If any final confirmation was needed that attempts to engage with the Taliban since August 2021 have not led to any positive change, this should be it. The approach of give and take, of humanitarian relief, of economic engagement, of exploring trade and transport links has been futile.

It seems intuitively right to argue that the world cannot turn its back on Afghanistan and abandon its people. But this argument ignores the fact that whatever engagement has been possible to date has not improved the situation of ordinary Afghans at all and in fact it has worsened that of women and girls. Moreover, calls for more engagement with the Taliban, especially when it appears to be unconditional—as expressed by China in its position paper and pursued by many of the Central Asian states for the past twenty months—also mask the underlying economic interests of such an approach.

Afghanistan has vast mineral deposits, including critical rare earth minerals, that are of significant interest to China, as are the country’s oil reserves. China is known to have invested in Afghanistan’s lithium sector and China and the Taliban also agreed a deal in January this year enabling a Chinese company to drill for oil in the Amu Darya basin. For Afghanistan’s northern neighbours in Central Asia, engagement with the Taliban is meant to lead to infrastructural, trade, and energy cooperation that would supposedly create opportunities for economic development across Central and South Asia and connect Central Asia better to the global economy at a time when many of its traditional connections to and through Russia have been disrupted by the war in Ukraine.

Economic engagement with, let alone diplomatic recognition of the Taliban regime, is not a promising approach to either achieving the regional security and stability that China and other neighbours of Afghanistan crave or to relieve the suffering of ordinary Afghans. While it is important to engage with China on Afghanistan, engaging with the Taliban regime can only lead to desirable outcomes if it remains steadfast in the commitment to key principles like the protection of the basic rights and interests of all Afghan people, including women, children and all ethnic groups which China’s position paper also calls for.

Even if an unconditional engagement with the Taliban regime now would result in short-term economic and perhaps even security gains, the Taliban’s track record in power—between 1996 and 2001 and since August 2021—suggests that this is neither a sustainable business proposition nor one that would be politically prudent.