Armenia's Election Is a Geopolitical Referendum
Armenia's election and the South Caucasus shift: a practitioner analysis by James Stanley and Stefan Wolff
Armenia's parliamentary elections on 7 June are often framed as a binary choice between Russia and the West. In reality, the outcome will shape the country's evolving relationship with Russia, the West, and its neighbours in the strategically important South Caucasus — a region at a crucial north-south and east-west crossroads, and one whose geopolitical significance extends far beyond its borders.
At stake first is the future of incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party government, which came to power in 2018 after the Velvet Revolution. That movement ousted the government of long-term leader Serzh Sarkisian, who had tried to prolong his stay in power by moving from the office of president to that of prime minister — triggering nation-wide protests that propelled Pashinyan to the premiership in May 2018 and to electoral victory that December.
Under Pashinyan, who was re-elected in 2021, Armenia has generally gravitated towards the European Union and away from Russia. That drift is mostly the consequence of Russia's failure to support Armenia during the Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. The offensive resulted in Azerbaijan retaking control of the territory — which Armenia had illegally occupied since the first Karabakh war in the early 1990s — and causing the displacement of around 100,000 Armenians from the region. These events unfolded in the presence of Russian "peacekeepers" deployed under the ceasefire agreement that ended the second Karabakh war in 2020.
Pashinyan is now campaigning on a platform to reopen the country's borders, lower dependence on Russia, and diversify its foreign and economic profile by normalising relations with traditional adversaries Azerbaijan and Turkey. If he secures another term, it would give him the mandate to carry out a major shift in Armenia's foreign policy orientation. In that sense, these elections amount to a strategic referendum on Armenia's geopolitical orientation.
Armenia's elections are often framed as a choice between Russia and the West. In reality, the outcome will shape a far more complex set of relationships — including with its neighbours.
Reordering the South Caucasus
A popular endorsement of Pashinyan's agenda would enable the continuation of three important trends in the region: first, the gradual emergence of regional ties between Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan; second, further declining Russian influence in a region where Moscow was once the undisputed hegemonic power; and third, a strengthening foothold for the EU and the US in a strategically important land bridge towards Central Asia and China.
The relationship between Moscow and Yerevan has steadily deteriorated over the past decade. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the weight and significance of Russia in the region has clearly diminished — though this has been a gradual process rather than an abrupt rupture.
While Russia retains significant influence in Georgia, the Georgian Dream government in Tbilisi is also trying to balance its relationship more carefully between Russia and the West — forging closer ties with Azerbaijan and Türkiye in the process. A victory for Pashinyan and his pro-Western agenda is likely to reinforce the trend towards geopolitical re-orientation across the region. But this will remain a careful multi-vector balancing act — a mixture of political, economic, and cultural relationships with different external actors — rather than a one-directional pivot towards the West.
Where Russia once accounted for over 90% of Armenia's weapons purchases, its share has now dropped to somewhere between 5% and 10%, while France and India have become Armenia's primary defence partners.
Russia's Residual Grip
Although Russian influence may be declining, Moscow's strategic interests in the South Caucasus remain strong. Russia will use whatever tools and leverage it still commands to prevent a further erosion of its role as erstwhile regional hegemon, including through cultural and religious channels of influence. Economically, Russia remains Armenia's most important trade partner and energy supplier. Many opposition forces also remain closely aligned with Moscow, including the Strong Armenia bloc led by billionaire Samvel Karapetyan.
Most Armenians favour diversification of relations rather than an outright rejection of Russia. According to recent polling, 43% see Moscow as the country's most important partner, compared to 42% who think of Washington in that way, and 29% who think of Brussels.
The geopolitical dynamics in and around Armenia are therefore more complex and nuanced than the political rhetoric surrounding them. Yet Russia's capacity to exercise real influence effectively — at the level of its previous dominance — is more constrained than ever. Where Russia once accounted for over 90% of Armenia's weapons purchases, its share has now dropped to somewhere between 5% and 10%, while France and India have become Armenia's primary defence partners.
Multi-Vector, Not a Pivot
Armenia has not, and most likely will not, replace its close alignment with Russia with one that solely relies on the West. However, the change in foreign policy direction under Pashinyan has clearly shifted away from Moscow and towards Brussels and Washington. On the European side, this has been reciprocated with the back-to-back European Political Community summit and first bilateral Armenia-EU summit held in Yerevan in May 2026.
Whoever forms the next government in Yerevan will still have a range of pre-existing problems to resolve in an environment where external support is neither certain nor dependably benign.
The United States under President Donald Trump has also demonstrated a continuing interest in the region. This has been most evident in Trump's engagement with a permanent peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While that has yet to be achieved, several pieces of the puzzle have been put in place, including, most recently, a bilateral framework agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). Given the transactional and erratic nature of much of Trump's foreign policy, this is unlikely to be a pivotal game changer for long-term US commitment to the region, but it is part of the broader picture of Armenia's geopolitical importance — and the opportunities it may create for Pashinyan's agenda.
A careful balance therefore needs to be struck between dismissing Armenia's parliamentary elections as mere continuation of historic Russian dependence and reading them as a clean pivot to the West in a much bigger geopolitical game. The outcome will matter for the country's direction and for the speed of travel.
Whoever forms the next government in Yerevan will still have a range of pre-existing problems to resolve — in an environment where external support is neither certain nor dependably benign.
This analysis draws on Stefan Wolff's article co-authored with James Stanley, published in The Foreign Policy Centre on 4 June 2026.
Armenia's shift in defence procurement — from over 90% Russian-sourced to under 10% — represents a structural reorientation that is harder to reverse than a rhetorical pivot. At what point, if any, does a change of this depth become irreversible, and what would it take to pull it back?
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